IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.9	#208
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	74.8	#54
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.6	#124

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.6	#304

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	9.6%	16.6%	8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.7	14.0	14.8

.500 or above	38.2%	64.6%	34.7%
.500 or above in Conference	63.7%	77.9%	61.9%
Conference Champion	10.7%	18.8%	9.6%
Last Place in Conference	6.0%	2.2%	6.5%

First Four	1.7%	1.2%	1.8%
First Round	8.8%	16.1%	7.8%
Second Round	0.7%	2.0%	0.5%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.5%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 11.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 4	1 - 6
Quad 3	3 - 7	4 - 13
Quad 4	10 - 5	14 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	74	@ Oregon St.	L	70-83	12%
Nov 09, 2019	92	@ New Mexico	L	82-93	15%
Nov 12, 2019	117	Pepperdine	L	82-85	38%
Nov 15, 2019	25	@ Auburn	L	71-90	5%
Nov 17, 2019	105	@ Richmond	L	73-83	19%
Nov 24, 2019	127	Colgate	L	76-81	31%
Nov 25, 2019	167	@ Green Bay	L	84-90	31%
Nov 30, 2019	118	Fresno St.	L	75-78	39%
Dec 04, 2019	285	@ Portland	W	77-76	54%
Dec 06, 2019	270	@ Portland St.	W	82-81	51%
Dec 11, 2019	153	North Dakota St.	L	76-77	48%
Dec 15, 2019	247	@ Pacific	L	73-74	46%
Dec 28, 2019	90	@ Boise St.	L	71-82	17%
Dec 31, 2019	329	Morgan St.	W	89-78	82%
Jan 08, 2020	289	Long Beach St.	W	86-79	73%
Jan 11, 2020	327	@ Cal Poly	W	79-75	65%
Jan 16, 2020	296	@ UC Riverside	W	73-71	56%
Jan 18, 2020	266	UC Davis	W	76-70	69%
Jan 22, 2020	160	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	72-78	31%
Jan 25, 2020	213	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	77-80	40%
Jan 30, 2020	160	UC Santa Barbara	L	74-75	50%
Feb 02, 2020	183	@ Hawaii	L	73-77	37%
Feb 08, 2020	296	UC Riverside	W	76-68	74%
Feb 13, 2020	327	Cal Poly	W	82-72	81%
Feb 15, 2020	266	@ UC Davis	L	73-74	50%
Feb 22, 2020	106	UC Irvine	L	73-77	37%
Feb 26, 2020	289	@ Long Beach St.	W	83-82	54%
Feb 29, 2020	213	Cal St. Fullerton	W	80-77	60%
Mar 04, 2020	106	@ UC Irvine	L	70-80	21%
Mar 07, 2020	183	Hawaii	W	76-74	56%
Projected Record						13 - 17	9 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.1	1.0	2.5	3.2	2.6	1.0	0.3		10.7	1st
2nd									0.0	0.4	2.4	5.0	4.1	1.6	0.3				13.9	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.9	4.0	6.6	3.8	0.7	0.0					16.0	3rd
4th							0.0	1.0	4.9	6.2	2.7	0.3	0.0						15.2	4th
5th						0.1	1.3	4.8	5.5	1.9	0.2								13.7	5th
6th					0.1	1.2	4.4	4.5	1.3	0.1									11.6	6th
7th				0.1	1.3	3.5	3.4	0.7	0.0										9.1	7th
8th		0.0	0.3	1.4	2.3	1.9	0.5	0.0											6.3	8th
9th	0.1	0.5	1.0	1.1	0.7	0.1	0.0												3.5	9th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.3	2.6	4.3	6.8	9.6	11.1	12.7	12.6	12.0	10.2	7.3	4.8	2.9	1.0	0.3			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
15-1	100.0%	1.0		1.0	0.1
14-2	89.6%	2.6		2.1	0.5	0.0
13-3	66.5%	3.2		1.8	1.2	0.1	0.0
12-4	34.0%	2.5		1.0	1.1	0.4	0.0
11-5	10.1%	1.0		0.2	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0
10-6	1.2%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
9-7	0.0%	0.0				0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	10.7%	10.7		6.4	3.3	0.9	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.3%		55.5%	49.5%	6.0%	12.1							0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1		11.9%
15-1	1.0%		47.2%	47.1%	0.1%	13.2											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.5		0.3%
14-2	2.9%		37.4%	37.1%	0.3%	13.6											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.1	1.8		0.4%
13-3	4.8%		28.1%	28.1%		14.1													0.1	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1	3.4
12-4	7.3%		22.7%	22.7%	0.0%	14.5												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.2	5.7		0.0%
11-5	10.2%		15.6%	15.6%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.4	8.6
10-6	12.0%		10.0%	10.0%		15.2														0.1	0.1	0.5	0.5	10.8
9-7	12.6%		6.2%	6.2%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	11.8
8-8	12.7%		4.9%	4.9%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	12.1
7-9	11.1%		3.9%	3.9%		15.9																0.0	0.4	10.6
6-10	9.6%		1.8%	1.8%		16.0																0.0	0.2	9.4
5-11	6.8%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	6.7
4-12	4.3%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																0.0	0.0	4.3
3-13	2.6%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	2.6
2-14	1.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.3
1-15	0.5%																							0.5
0-16	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		9.6%	9.6%	0.0%	14.7							0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.1	0.4	1.2	2.2	2.8	2.9	90.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%